12:03 pm
March 11

SEC Tournament: Mississippi State v. Kentucky

Who will WIN this matchup?

Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-13)

Kentucky Wildcats (9-15)

 

Current odds:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: (+145)

Kentucky Wildcats: (-165)

 

• The line for this game is Kentucky by 3.5 points.

• Seeing Kentucky as an eighth seed in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t be a big surprise, but seeing the Wildcats as an eighth seed in the Southeastern Conference tournament is something rare indeed. But that’s where Kentucky (9-15, 8-9 SEC) finds itself, in need of a run to a conference tournament title to get an automatic berth to the Big Dance. The Wildcats’ first test is ninth-seeded Mississippi State in a second-round game on Thursday afternoon in Nashville, Tenn. The winner gets No. 1 seed Alabama in the quarterfinals on Friday afternoon.

• Is it a longshot? Yes. The Wildcats haven’t won more than three games in a row all season. Has Kentucky been there before? More than any other SEC team. The Wildcats dropped an 82-78 decision to Tennessee in the 2019 semifinals, which ended coach John Calipari’s 13-game winning streak in the conference tournament.

• Kentucky has won 31 SEC tournament championships, more than the rest of the league combined. The Wildcats have won six SEC tournament crowns under Calipari. But this year is the first time Kentucky hasn’t clinched a bye to the quarterfinals since the field expanded in 2013.

• Calipari wishes Bridgestone Arena, site of the SEC tourney, was fully open to fans because he felt Kentucky enthusiasts would pack the gym. As it is, the building will be allowed to hold 20 percent capacity, or 3,400 fans.

• If it’s close, the Bulldogs will have a chance. Kentucky has faltered in down the stretch more often than not in tight games this season.

• Mississippi State (14-13, 8-10) enters the tournament having won three of its last five games, but the Bulldogs lost to Kentucky 78-73 in double overtime back in early January. They expect most of the fans in the seats that are allowed will be in Kentucky blue.

• History isn’t on the Bulldogs’ side. Kentucky holds a 99-20 all-time series lead over the Bulldogs, and the Wildcats have recorded 15 consecutive victories in the matchup under Calipari going back to the 2009-10 season.

• Like Kentucky, the Bulldogs have to somehow make a run and capture the SEC tournament crown to earn automatic entry in the NCAA Tournament.

5/10
Confidence
StreakSmarter Pick
Kentucky Wildcats
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